Assessing the Assessment : The 1999 National Intelligence Estimate of the Ballistic Missile Threat Viewpoint

In summer 2000, the Clinton administration is scheduled to decide whether to authorize deployment by the United States of a limited national missile defense (NMD) system. This date arose from a “3+3” policy announced in the midst of the 1996 election campaign: under it, the administration would conduct research and development on missile defenses until 2000, then decide whether to proceed to a deployment that would become operational in 2003 (the date of initial operational capability has since been revised to 2005). The administration said it would base its decision on the threat, the maturity of the technology, the program’s impact on US-Russian nuclear arms reductions, and the projected cost.